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Prediction for CME (2023-09-20T15:05:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-20T15:05Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27022/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent M8.2 flare from AR 3435 (N07E35) seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-09-20T14:15Z. Dimming and field line movement is visible near the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery as well. No CME arrival signature at L1 on September 22-23.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-23T03:19Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30921
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Sep 2023, 1230UT

A second (faint) partial halo CME with angular width around 180 degrees was first seen at 14:12 UTC on 20 September by LASCO-C2. The CME was related to the M8.2 flare from NOAA AR 3435, the bulk of the material was traveling to the south. The CME had a speed around 800 km/s, an impact at the Earth can be expected on 23 September.

Lead Time: 41.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-09-21T09:22Z

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